what population white paper did not tell you..

in the executive summary, speaking of getting “3% to 5% Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth on average” between now and 2020, and 2% to 3% thereafter. Strictly speaking, these were not assumptions. They were arbitrarily laid down targets, but once laid down, they effectively determined the result — which is that population has to rise to as many as 6.9 million. We can see the problem straight away: why is GDP growth rate the driver of any population policy? It’s like this: GDP growth comes from two broad elements: productivity growth and an increase in labour force. That is: existing hands creating more output by working more efficiently and productively, plus more hands coming on deck. It is a known fact that over the longish term, productivity growth rarely exceeds 2 percent per annum. Especially for a developed economy, even 2% might be a struggle; it could be 1%. Hence, if the laid-down target is 3 – 5% GDP growth, inescapably it must mean more hands on deck. The choice Singaporeans should be asked to consider is this: Do we prefer to have a more slowly-growing economy (1 to 2 % a year) with no further increase in population or do we prefer a faster-growing one with more foreigners in our midst? The White Paper does not give Singaporeans this choice. We’ve been using immigration to top up the population, but with such a low TFR, a high rate of immigration is needed. Moreover, it is a never-ending problem. So long as TFR remains this low, a high intake will be needed indefinitely. Such a prospect is virtually impossible to sell politically. what is a “demographically healthy” society? Well, it is a sort of idealised society that has a stable population from generation to generation; it is sustainable. It is not lumpy and schizoid like Singapore’s population, bursting upwards in one generation followed by a baby-bust in the next. The old-age dependency ratio in this idealised society is 2.25. There are 2.025 million persons in the working age range of 20 to 64 years compared to 900,000 persons aged 65 and older. You can check the calculation from Table 3 yourself. What does this tell us? It tells us that there is something wrong with the White Paper’s interpretation of good and bad. Our idealised ratio of 2.25, which is compatible with a demographically healthy society, is a lot closer to their “shock-horror” 2.1 than to the current 5.9, let alone the nostalgic 13.5 of 1970.